Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100

Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 degrees C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 degrees C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (ARS), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 degrees C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 degrees C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment

Kalcizacija kiselih zemljišta u Osječko-baranjskoj županiji

The negative trend of soil degradation process increases with intensive agricultural production. Therefore, there is a need for soil conditioning like liming, humification, fertilization, etc. to improve soil quality. One of the major problems that occur on agricultural soils of Croatia is acidification. A downward trend of soil pH is mainly present in soils of poor structure with intensive agricultural production. In agricultural practice liming often needs to rely only on the pH value, without determining the hydrolytic acidity, CEC or soil texture. Due to the above mentioned facts, calculation of liming for Osijek-Baranja County was conducted with the help of ALRxp calculator, which takes CEC, soil pH in KCl, hydrolytic acidity, bulk density of soil, soil textural class and depth of the plow layer to 30 cm into account. Low soil pH values have a great influence on soil suitability for crops as well as on the deficit of calcium and magnesium. All of these lead to the degradation of soil structure, and can even lead to disturbances of plant nutrition in some production areas. On such soils, liming would be imperatively required, but with caution because an excessive intake of lime materials, especially without the necessary analysis, causes a decline in organic matter and reduces accessibility for plant uptake of microelements.Negativan trend procesa degradacije zemljišta povećava se sa intenzivnom poljoprivrednom proizvodnjom. Zato postoji potreba za poboljšanjem zemljišnih osobina đubrenjem, kalcizacijom, humifikacijom, itd. Jedan od najvećih problema koji se javljaju na poljoprivrednim zemljištima Hrvatske je kiselost. Trend snižavanja pH vrednosti je uglavnom prisutan na loše strukturnim zemljištima sa intenzivnom poljoprivrednom proizvodnjom. U poljoprivrednoj praksi potrebe za kalcizacijom često se oslanjaju samo na pH vrednost, bez utvrđivanja hidrolitičke kiselosti, CEC ili teksturu zemljišta. Shodno navedenim činjenicama, određivanje količine sredstava za kalcizaciju u Osječko-baranjskoj županiji je sprovedeno uz pomoć ALRxp kalkulatora, koji uzima u obzir količinu CEC-a, pH u KCl zemljišta, hidrolitičku kiselost, zapreminsku masu zemljišta, volumnu gustoću, pripadnost teksturnoj klasi i dubinu oraničnog sloja do 30 cm. Niske pH vrednosti zemljišta imaju veliki uticaj na izbor i pogodnost useva koji ćemo gajiti, kao što znamo zbog nedostatka kalcijuma i magnezijuma. Sve ovo dovodi do degradacije strukture zemljišta, a u nekim proizvodnim područjima može čak dovesti do poremećaja u ishrani bilja. Kalcizacija je neophodna upravo na takvim zemljištima, ali uz oprez, jer prekomerni unos kreča, posebno bez neophodne analize, izaziva pad organske materije i smanjuje pristupačnost mikroelemenata neophodnih za biljke

African Swine Fever Outbreak in an Enclosed Wild Boar Hunting Ground in Serbia

African swine fever (ASF) has been detected in many European countries since its introduction in Georgia in 2007. Serbia suffered its first case of ASF in the domestic pig population in 2019. At the beginning of 2020, ASF was detected in wild boars in open hunting grounds in the southeastern region of the country in districts along the country’s borders with Romania and Bulgaria. Since then, all ASF outbreaks in wild boar were clustered in the population located in the same bordering areas. Despite the newly implemented biosecurity protocols for hunters in 2019, ASF was detected for the first time in June 2021 in the wild boar population located in an enclosed hunting ground in the northeast region of the country. In this study, we reported the first ASF outbreak in a wild boar population located in an enclosed hunting ground in close proximity to the Serbian–Romanian border. The epizootiological data on the field investigation of the ASF outbreak, with descriptions of the clinical signs and gross pathological lesions detected, including the total number as well as the estimated age, sex, and postmortem interval, were analyzed. Clinical signs were detected only in nine diseased wild boars, while in total, 149 carcasses were found in the open and enclosed part of the hunting ground. In addition, 99 carcasses from which samples (parts of spleen or long bones) were collected for molecular diagnostics (RT-PCR) were confirmed as ASF-positive. The results of the epidemiological investigations indicate the central role of wild boar movements as well as the constant risk of human-related activities in the countries bordering area

Observation and modeling of high-7Be concentration events at the surface in northern Europe associated with the instability of the Arctic polar vortex in early 2003

Abstract. Events of very high concentrations of 7Be cosmogenic radionuclide have been recorded at low-elevation surface stations in the subpolar regions of Europe during the cold season. With an aim to investigate the mechanisms responsible for those peak 7Be events, and in particular to verify if they are associated with the fast descent of stratospheric air masses occurring during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, we analyze 7Be observations at six sampling sites in Fennoscandia during January–March 2003 when very high 7Be concentrations were observed and the Arctic vortex was relatively unstable as a consequence of several SSW events. We use the GEOS-Chem chemistry and transport model driven by the MERRA-2 meteorological reanalysis to simulate tropospheric 7Be over northern Europe. We show that the model reasonably reproduces the temporal evolution of surface 7Be concentrations observed at the six sampling sites. Our analysis of model simulations, surface 7Be observations, atmospheric soundings of ozone and temperature and surface ozone measurements indicates that the 7Be peak observed in late February 2003 (between 20 and 28 February 2003) at the six sampling sites in Fennoscandia was associated with downward transport of stratospheric vortex air that originated during an SSW that occurred a few days earlier (between 18 and 21 February 2003).Supplementary material: [https://vet-erinar.vet.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2048

Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System

The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with producers, web portal development, etc. Our results showed that the selected priority forecasting products were also identified by the producers as being the highest weather-related risks, the operational forecast implementation with the products designed for the use in agricultural production is proven to be urgent and necessary for decision-making, and required investments are affordable. The total cost of the full upgrade of agrometeorological climate services to meet current needs (including monitoring, seamless forecasting system development and the development of tools for information dissemination) was found to be about three orders of magnitude lower than the assessed losses in agricultural production in the two extreme years over the past decade

Winter extremes of beryllium-7 surface concentrations in northern Europe

Specific activity of cosmogenic 7 Be in surface air generally shows a spring-summer maximum. However, extremely high 7 Be concentrations in surface air also occur during winter. The aim of our analysis is to characterise temporal and spatial prevalence of winter extreme events, and to investigate the associated synoptic meteorological conditions in northern Europe. Four measurement sites, with an approximate weekly sampling rate over the 2001–2010 period, are selected from the online Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) Database. The extremes in the 7 Be surface concentration are defined as measurements above the 90th percentile in each location.The results indicate that at each measurement site, 10–20 % of the extremes occur during winter (November, December, January and February). Two types of 7 Be extremes are distinguished: 1) approximately half of these occurrences are isolated events detected in one or two stations, and 2) the other half are events grouped within four months, when at least three 7 Be extremes per month are observed. The monthly Scandinavia (SCAND) teleconnection index for isolated extreme events (type-1) is positive and, with only one exception, larger than 0.4, while in the case of type-2 events, the monthly SCAND is very high (larger than 1).This finding implies that in northern Europe during winter, the atmospheric conditions associated with a high SCAND index facilitate an occurrence of extreme 7 Be surface concentration

Petnaestogodišnji trendovi specifične aktivnosti berilijuma-7 u vazduhu u Evropi

MeĎu najbitnije faktore koji utiču na specifičnu aktivnost berilijuma-7 u prizemnom sloju atmosfere spadaju temperatura i količina padavina. U ovom radu stoga razmatramo njihove vremenske trendove izmeĎu 2000. i 2014. godine, na šest lokacija u Evropi: Madrid i Bilbao (Španija) na jugu; Beč (Austrija) i Luksemburg (Luksemburg) u centralnoj oblasti; kao i Riso (Danska) i Ivalo (Finska) na severu kontinenta. Podaci za specifičnu aktivnost berilijuma-7 preuzeti su iz Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring data bank (REMdb), a podaci za lokalnu temperaturu i količinu padavina iz E-OBS gridovane klimatologije (verzija 15) i potom bilinearnom interpolacijom ekstrahovani na šest lokacija uzorkovanja berilijuma-7. Za dobijanje trendova koristili smo sezonski Kendalov test, u kome se za svaki mesec tokom godine prvo primeni Man-Kendalov trend test, a potom se rezultati kombinuju. Statistički značajni (p < 0,05) pozitivni trendovi specifične aktivnosti berilijuma-7 dobijeni su za četiri lokacije: Madrid (8,71·10-5 Bq·m-3/god), Bilbao (3,13·10-5 Bq·m-3/god), Luksemburg (4,00·10-5 Bq·m-3/god), i Ivalo (1,91·10-5 Bq·m-3/god), a statistički značajan pozitivan trend temperature detektovan je samo za Madrid. Naša analiza ukazuje na povećanje koncentracije berilijuma-7 u Evropi tokom 2000–2014, sa izraţenijim trendom na jugu nego na severu. MeĎutim, kako dobijeni trendovi za temperaturu i količinu padavina uglavnom nisu statistički značajni, nije moguće razmotriti njihovu meĎusobnu povezanost. U budućim analizama ovog problema stoga treba uzeti u obzir duţe vremenske nizove ovih promenljivih

Beryllium-7 and tropopause height: an analysis of correlations across latitudinal belts

Linearna korelacija izmeĎu specifične aktivnosti berilijuma-7 u prizemnom sloju atmosfere i visine tropopauze, analizirana je na 21 lokaciji u Evropi. Geografska širina odabranih lokacija je u rasponu 37–69 °N. Lokacije su grupisane u pet pojaseva geografske širine. Za svaku lokaciju, koeficijenti linearne korelacije računati su sa „vremenskom razdvojenošću“ – izmerena specifična aktivnost berilijuma-7 korelisana je sa srednjom vrednošću visine tropopauze tokom odreĎenog broja dana koji je prethodio merenju. Ovaj broj dana varirao je od 0 do 31. Za dobijene nizove linearnih korelacionih koeficijenata pronaĎeni su maksumumi kao i broj dana vremenske razdvojenosti na kojima su maksimumi dostignuti. PoreĎenja radi, dati su i rezultati za mernu stanicu Vinča, Beograd, za koju su koeficijenti linearne korelacije izračunati na osnovu srednjih mesečnih specifičnih aktivnosti berilijuma-7 i srednjih mesečnih visina tropopauze. Srednja vrednost maksimalnog koeficijenta linearne korelacije za sve stanice: iznosi 0,350 i u proseku se dostiţe posle 10 dana; raste od severa ka jugu. Merne stanice duţ obale Atlanskog okeana ili u njegovoj blizini imaju najniţe vrednosti maksimalnog koeficijenta korelacije. Srednja sezonska vrednost maksimalnog koeficijenta korelacije raste od 0,249 tokom zime do 0,470 tokom jeseni, i praćena je rastom srednjeg sezonskog broj dana vremenske razdvojenosti – tokom zime iznosi sedam dana, a tokom jeseni 16 dana. U sezonskim korelacijama razlikuju se dva pojasa geografske širine, severno i juţno od 55 °N, u kojima linearnа povezanost specifične aktivnosti berilijuma-7 i visine tropopauze ima drugačiji karakter.Linear correlation between the 7Be specific activity in surface air and tropopause height is analysed for 21 locations in Europe. The latitude of the locations spans from 37 °N to 69 °N. The locations are grouped into five latitudinal belts. For each location, the linear correlation coefficients are calculated with a time lag – the measured 7Be specific activity is correlated with the mean tropopause height over a number of days that preceded the day of the measurements. Time lag varied from 0 to 31. The maxima are found in the calculated arrays of the linear correlation coefficients, as well as the number of days for which the maxima are reached. For comparison, the results for a measurement location Vinĉa in Belgrade, Serbia, are also given. For this site, the linear correlation coefficients are calculated using the monthly means of the 7Be specific activity and tropopause height. The mean value of the maximum linear correlation coefficient for the whole set of measurements is 0.350, and is on average reached after the time lag of ten days. In the investigated latitudinal belts, this mean value increases as the latitude decreases. The measurement locations along the coast of the Atlantic or in its proximity show the least linear correlation. The mean seasonal maximum correlation coefficient increases from 0.249 during winter to 0.470 during autumn, and is matched by an increase in the mean time lag which ranges from 7 days in winter to 16 days in autumn. The seasonal correlations show two latitudinal belts, north of 55 °N and south of 55 °N, in which the linear correlation of the 7Be specific activity and tropopause height exhibits somewhat different characteristics

Extremely high beryllium-7 surface concentrations in Europe: a case study

Beryllium-7 is a cosmogenic radionuclide that, due to its maximum production in the stratosphere and upper troposphere, has often been used as a tracer of vertical transport processes in the atmosphere. In particular, high concentrations of surface airborne beryllium-7 could be a result of an uncommonly fast descent of air masses from the stratosphere into the troposphere. Hence, our aim is to investigate the maxima in the beryllium-7 surface concentrations to better understand the processes associated with the downward transport from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Fourteen locations in Europe, with latitudes ranging between 37 °N and 69 °N, and longitudes between 6 °W and 28 °E, are analysed in our study. Over the 2001–2010 period, the beryllium-7 surface concentration measurements in the chosen sites were performed mostly once a week, giving a total of about 500 data points per each site. The data are contained within the online Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) Database. We define the beryllium-7 maxima as values exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for each site. Over 2001–2010, 345 maxima are identified for the investigated 14 sites, out of which 61 maxima (18 %) occurred during three consecutive months: May, June and July 2006. Over this period, i.e. summer 2006, the contribution of detected maxima to the total number of maxima for each site ranged between 4 % and 32 %, with six sites showing a contribution of 20 % or larger. This number of extremely high beryllium-7 specific activities concentrated over only three months marks this period as unique. In an attempt to identify underlying mechanisms that are associated with this exceptional episode of high beryllium-7 surface concentrations, we look into the potential vorticity, surface temperature and pressure, and precipitation maps over the region of interest during the time window when the extremes were observed

Analysis of extreme beryllium-7 specific activities in surface air

We present an analysis of the maxima in a large dataset of the beryllium-7 specific activities measured in surface air in Helsinki, Finland, over 25 years (1987-2011), which are stored in the online Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) database. The maxima are defined as events with the beryllium-7 specific activity above the 95th percentile, which, for the Helsinki data set, equals to 4.8210-3 Bqm-3. The beryllium-7 specific activity in Helsinki shows a seasonal pattern with the monthly means above 2.0010-3 Bqm-3 during the warm season (April– September), and below 2.0010-3 Bqm-3 during the cold season (October–March). The analysis of the extremes shows that 10 % occurred in the cold season, and these “cold extremes” are analysed in more detail. Amongst the cold extremes, three representative “episodes” are identified. The episodes, which occurred in March 1999, February 2003 and February 2005, show extremely high beryllium-7 specific activities measured over several consecutive days. Anomalies of potential vorticity, sea level pressure and surface temperature, as well as precipitation, over Europe and the Atlantic are investigated. A brief analysis of one cold extreme, classified as “burst” since it was an isolated event surrounded by measurements below the 95th percentile, is also presented in an attempt to find common mechanisms that contribute to both cold extreme episodes and bursts. Scandinavia teleconnection index seems to represent a good indicator of potentially preferential atmospheric conditions that could lead to cold extreme episode occurrences in the Scandinavian region